As Oman’s cities grow, so do the stakes of a future earthquake. The Earthquake Monitoring Center has completed M-RAFEEQ, a project funded through SQU’s Internal Grants Programme. It brings earthquake hazard, ground conditions, building vulnerability, population, infrastructure and economic loss together in a single urban risk framework. Focusing on Al-Seeb in Muscat, its findings offer guidance for developments such as Sultan Haitham City and The Sustainable City – Yiti. Dr. Abdullah Ansari, the project’s Principal Investigator, who led the work with Co-PI Dr. Issa El-Hussain, elaborates on what the project found and why it matters for the urban future.
What was the project trying to achieve?
We wanted an integrated way of understanding and managing earthquake risk in Oman’s fast-growing urban areas. Conventional seismic hazard assessment tells us how strongly the ground may shake. The Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment Framework for Enhancing Earthquake Preparedness for Urban Environment (M-RAFEEQ) goes further by combining that hazard with local ground conditions, building vulnerability, population exposure, critical infrastructure, preparedness and potential economic consequences. All of which give a far more realistic picture of how earthquake impacts could vary across a city, even where the expected level of shaking is similar.
Why did you choose Al-Seeb as the main study area?
Al-Seeb is characterised by rapid urbanisation, dense residential development, major transport routes, educational institutions, healthcare facilities, commercial areas and expanding urban zones. That mix makes it an ideal case. Through the framework, we could see how differences in site conditions, building characteristics, exposure and the criticality of facilities influence the spatial distribution of earthquake risk.
What were the outcomes of the project?
One of the principal outcomes was risk-based spatial information that helps distinguish areas where earthquake consequences may be relatively more significant. The study showed that seismic risk is controlled not only by the level of hazard, but also by the vulnerability of buildings, the concentration of people and assets, the importance of critical facilities, alongside the preparedness of the surrounding community.
What is the importance of taking into consideration the potential economic loss in the project?
Because earthquake impacts extend well beyond direct structural damage. Repair and reconstruction costs, business interruption, disrupted transport networks, temporary closure of schools and hospitals, utility failures, displacement of residents and reduced economic activity can collectively produce substantial losses. By integrating physical vulnerability with exposure and asset-related information, M-RAFEEQ provides a basis for identifying where economic consequences could be concentrated. This is a crucial component of urban resilience.
How can this knowledge influence the future growth of Muscat?
New neighbourhoods, transport corridors, commercial areas, schools, hospitals and mixed-use developments continue to emerge in Muscat. The project showed how seismic risk information can be considered early in the development process to guide site investigations, infrastructure planning, emergency accessibility, the allocation of critical facilities and risk-informed urban growth. It can support practical questions such as where critical facilities should preferably be located, which areas may need more detailed geotechnical investigation, where higher economic exposure may develop, and which transport or utility networks are essential for maintaining post-earthquake functionality.
Does the framework have relevance for large development projects, such as Sultan Haitham City?
Very much so. Developments of this scale will accommodate significant populations and include residential districts, schools, healthcare facilities, transport systems, utilities, commercial areas and public spaces. M-RAFEEQ offers a practical example of how seismic hazard, site response, building vulnerability, exposure and critical infrastructure can be assessed together before urban density and asset concentration increase substantially. The same lessons apply to The Sustainable City – Yiti and other planned developments across Muscat.
Where does earthquake resilience fit into sustainability?
Sustainability is commonly associated with energy efficiency, environmental performance, mobility and quality of life, but long-term sustainability also requires resilience to natural hazards. Integrating seismic risk into the planning stage can strengthen the safety and continuity of future urban communities.
How applicable is the framework to other areas outside Muscat?
It can support the planning of other major urban and regional developments in Oman, including new cities, expanding residential areas, logistics zones, industrial corridors, tourism projects and infrastructure investments. All of them can benefit from early identification of hazard-prone locations, vulnerable building stock, critical infrastructure dependencies and areas of potentially high economic exposure.
What was the most important lesson from the project?
That urban risk changes with development. Cities keep expanding, population density increases, asset values rise and new infrastructure is introduced. The consequences of a future earthquake can also increase. M-RAFEEQ therefore helps us examine not only current risk, but also how risk may evolve as development progresses. This information can strengthen long-term investment protection and reduce the potential social and economic consequences of future earthquakes.
Based on this work, what would you say to the decision-makers?
M-RAFEEQ demonstrated how earthquake science, engineering, economic-loss estimation, spatial planning and community preparedness can be brought together within a single framework to support resilient urban development. As Oman continues to advance major urban projects under Oman Vision 2040, I hope the findings and methodology will serve as a valuable reference for future planning. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Issa El-Hussain, the Project Co-PI, and the M-RAFEEQ team at the Earthquake Monitoring Center for their contributions.